If the CAFE standard does indeed get increased to 35 MPG, what changes will we see in trucks?  Here’s what I see changing:

• Truck downsizing – We’ll finally see the next generation of trucks actually get smaller, rather than larger.  Smaller = lighter = better fuel economy
• Engine downsizing – Let’s face it – 99% of truck buyers don’t need a 400 HP 6.0 liter V8.  A 250 HP V8 would do just fine, if they’d just drive a bit more conservatively.
• Diesels will rule – Diesels go farther on a gallon of fuel than a gas engine – period.  To hit the lofty CAFE numbers, we’ll start seeing diesels in light-duty full-size trucks, large SUV’s, midsize SUV’s & trucks, and perhaps even compact SUV’s.  Truck buyers love their power, and a diesel engine can give them the torque they crave, while still increasing fuel economy.
• Towing capacity will decrease – Very, very few folks need to tow 9,000+ lbs.  Those that do can learn to pony up for a 3/4 ton truck with a diesel.
• The compact pickup truck will return – Today the only compact truck on the market is the Ford Ranger – everything else is a “midsize” or larger.  Folks who really and truly need a small pickup can get by with just that – a small pickup.  A truck like this could be a great candidate for a 4 cylinder gas engine with a hybrid system.
• Body-on-frame SUV’s will die – Well, they won’t die, but they’ll become as rare as a 3 cylinder engine.
• Cylinder deactivation will become the norm – This technology isn’t expensive, and it does aid in highway fuel economy
• Prices won’t necessarily rise – Hybrid technology, lighter materials, and advanced technology cost more, sure.  But with the overall downsizing of these vehicles, I think the prices will even out, and we won’t see a widespread jump in truck & SUV prices.
• The “Macho Truck” look will be out – The “I’m bigger than you” look, so well embodied by the Dodge Ram, will fade into oblivion – but not for stigma reasons ( though that is a possible factor ).  Rather, aerodynamics will be a consideration in future truck designs.  The massive, flat front of the Ram cuts through the air like a large brick, and wind resistance kills gas mileage.

Smaller SUV’s will see a proliferation of hybrid technology.  The system has worked extremely well in the Ford Escape Hybrid and Mercury Mariner Hybrid, that it’s bound to move across automaker’s lineups.  Diesels will supplant gas engines as the main choice for the larger vehicles ( though they will be smaller than we’re used to today ).  And no longer will we see 1/2 ton pickup trucks that can tow nine or ten thousand pounds.  The truck market will change, drastically, and for the better. 

Currently, the CAFE standards are 27.5 mpg for cars, and 22.2 mpg for SUV’s and light trucks.  That’s pretty sad overall, and leaves a giant loophole.  Any vehicle that can be classified as a light truck gets away with having a lower mileage standard.  That means vehicles like the Dodge Magnum don’t have to get good mileage – the US government classifies it as a truck. 

The proposed new CAFE standards are 35 MPG for all vehicles – cars, minivans, light trucks, SUV’s, you name it.  That raises the standard across the board, while wiping out the truck loophole that exists today.  If approved, the new standards will go into effect in the year 2020.  This gives manufacturers 13 years to get on board and get everything figured out – plenty of time when you think about it.  That’s at least two vehicle life cycles, which gives enough time to implement advanced fuel savings technology – such as hybrid powertrains.

Through a combination of hybrid powertrains, lighter materials ( aluminum where possible in lieu of steel ), and better aerodynamics, 35 MPG should be cake for cars.  It will be trickier for the trucks – a lot trickier.  Consider that today the average full-size pickup truck gets about 14-15 MPG combined EPA.  That needs to increase to the 35 MPG neighborhood – that’s over double the current mileage.

Overall, hybrid technology will be the single most important factor in achieving the new CAFE standards, if they are approved.  No other technology has the immensely powerful fuel economy impact that an electric motor and some batteries.  As hybrid technology goes mainstream, we can all expect the “hybrid premium” to go down - making hybrids more affordable for everyone.  And I think I speak for all of us when I say - that’s a beautiful thing.