The Hybrid Blog

After my last post about CAFE and Hybrids,  I really got to thinking about how the new CAFE standards will affect the American truck market.  Currently the average pickup truck buyer never uses the bed of his truck for anything besides groceries, or perhaps a bit of luggage on the way to the airport.  They also tend not to go offroad (unless the driveway counts as off-road).  By that reckoning, the average truck buyer would probably do better with a car – both in purchase cost and upkeep cost ( gas, maintenance, repairs, etc ), without sacrificing, well, anything.

If the CAFE standard does indeed get increased to 35 MPG, what changes will we see in trucks?  Here’s what I see changing:

• Truck downsizing – We’ll finally see the next generation of trucks actually get smaller, rather than larger.  Smaller = lighter = better fuel economy
• Engine downsizing – Let’s face it – 99% of truck buyers don’t need a 400 HP 6.0 liter V8.  A 250 HP V8 would do just fine, if they’d just drive a bit more conservatively.
• Diesels will rule – Diesels go farther on a gallon of fuel than a gas engine – period.  To hit the lofty CAFE numbers, we’ll start seeing diesels in light-duty full-size trucks, large SUV’s, midsize SUV’s & trucks, and perhaps even compact SUV’s.  Truck buyers love their power, and a diesel engine can give them the torque they crave, while still increasing fuel economy.
• Towing capacity will decrease – Very, very few folks need to tow 9,000+ lbs.  Those that do can learn to pony up for a 3/4 ton truck with a diesel.
• The compact pickup truck will return – Today the only compact truck on the market is the Ford Ranger – everything else is a “midsize” or larger.  Folks who really and truly need a small pickup can get by with just that – a small pickup.  A truck like this could be a great candidate for a 4 cylinder gas engine with a hybrid system.
• Body-on-frame SUV’s will die – Well, they won’t die, but they’ll become as rare as a 3 cylinder engine.
• Cylinder deactivation will become the norm – This technology isn’t expensive, and it does aid in highway fuel economy
• Prices won’t necessarily rise – Hybrid technology, lighter materials, and advanced technology cost more, sure.  But with the overall downsizing of these vehicles, I think the prices will even out, and we won’t see a widespread jump in truck & SUV prices.
• The “Macho Truck” look will be out – The “I’m bigger than you” look, so well embodied by the Dodge Ram, will fade into oblivion – but not for stigma reasons ( though that is a possible factor ).  Rather, aerodynamics will be a consideration in future truck designs.  The massive, flat front of the Ram cuts through the air like a large brick, and wind resistance kills gas mileage.

Smaller SUV’s will see a proliferation of hybrid technology.  The system has worked extremely well in the Ford Escape Hybrid and Mercury Mariner Hybrid, that it’s bound to move across automaker’s lineups.  Diesels will supplant gas engines as the main choice for the larger vehicles ( though they will be smaller than we’re used to today ).  And no longer will we see 1/2 ton pickup trucks that can tow nine or ten thousand pounds.  The truck market will change, drastically, and for the better. 

Filed under: CAFE

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